Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom los ntawm Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun thaum Lub Xya Hli 30, tus thawj coj ntawm lub tuam txhab nti loj tau hais nrog kev nkag siab ntawm kev kub ntxhov,&"; Kuv tau hnov ntau zaus xov xwm txog kev xa khoom qeeb hauv 1-2 lub hlis dhau los." Muaj qhov tsis txaus, tab sis lub sijhawm xa khoom tau txuas ntxiv los ntawm thawj ib xyoos los ntawm ib nrab xyoo mus rau ib thiab ib nrab xyoo." Yav tom ntej, qhov tseem ceeb rau kev txuas ntxiv lub sijhawm xa khoom yuav tsum raug tshuaj xyuas thiab lub tsev tsim khoom yuav tsum tau tsim." Tus thawj coj tau taw qhia tias" ob peb xyoos dhau los, vim qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov pob ntsia hlau, lub sijhawm xa khoom siv tau txuas ntxiv mus. Txawm hais tias qhov xwm txheej tau zoo dua nyob rau 1-2 xyoo dhau los, cov neeg muag khoom siv tau tibneeg hu tauj coob txij li xyoo 2021, thiab lub ncauj lus ntawm kev xa khoom tau rov tshwm sim." .
Raws li cov lus ceeb toom, nws yog qhov nyuaj thiab ntau dua los yuav cov chips uas xav tau rau Advantest's cov khoom siv ntsuas hluav taws xob. Lub sijhawm xa khoom ntawm cov cuab yeej ntsuas feem ntau yog 3-4 lub hlis, tab sis tam sim no tau txuas ntxiv mus txog 6 lub hlis. Yoshida Yoshida, Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm Advantest, hais tias," Muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov ntaub ntawv uas tsis tau pom dua yav dhau los. Piv txwv li, nws tau hnov tias qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov substrates (siv hauv kev tsim khoom siv hluav taws xob) tsis tuaj yeem daws tau hauv 2-3 xyoos."
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm taw qhia tias vim tias muaj peev xwm yuav ntau dua ntawm cov neeg muag khoom siv khoom loj, zoo li tsis muaj cov khoom xa tuaj qeeb. Ib tus neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob Tokyo tau taw qhia tias" Tokyo Electronics tau txais kev tiv thaiv thaum ntxov nrog nws cov chaw muag khoom, yog li tsis muaj teeb meem tshwm sim."
60% ntawm cov neeg muag khoom siv nti ntsib qhov tsis txaus
Nikkei Shimbun tau tshaj tawm rau Lub Rau Hli 22 tias raws li kev tshawb fawb nug los ntawm Nyij Pooj ua cov hlau nruab nrab Caddi nrog 32 nti tsim cov khoom siv muag khoom koom nrog hauv Caddi lub rooj sib tham, nws tau pom tias kwv yees li 60% tau ntsib qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv hauv lub xyoo dhau los. . .
Caddi tau taw qhia tias nrog qhov xav tau siab rau cov chips, ntau thiab ntau cov khoom lag luam chip tau mob siab los nrhiav cov khoom tshiab txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txuas ntxiv qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv.
Ntawm cov neeg muag khoom siv nti uas lees txais daim ntawv nug, siab txog li 59% tau hais tias nyob rau xyoo dhau los, cov khoom lag luam uas twb muaj lawm tau ua tsis tiav raws li qhov xav tau thiab ua rau cov khoom tsis txaus. Ib qho ntxiv, txog li 70% lossis ntau dua hais tias lawv tau ntsib teeb meem xws li kev yuav khoom lub sijhawm khoom xa khoom, tus nqi, thiab qhov zoo.
Kev muag khoom siv chip hauv Nyij Pooj tau cia siab tias yuav ua rau muaj qhov tsis tau pom dua
Lub Koom Haum Tsim Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob ntawm Nyij Pooj (SEAJ) tau tshaj tawm nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm huab cua thaum Lub Xya Hli 1, hais tias vim yog kev nqis peev nquag hauv kev tsim cov logic/wafer foundries thiab kev cia siab yuav nqis peev hauv kev nco tag nrho, nws kwv yees tias 2021 (Plaub Hlis 2021) -2022) Kev muag khoom ntawm Nyij Pooj ua cov khoom siv (hais txog kev muag khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab Nyij Pooj cov cuab yeej siv hauv Nyij Pooj thiab txawv teb chaws) yuav nce 22.5% txhua xyoo rau 2,920 billion yen, zoo dua li qhov kev kwv yees yav dhau los (Lub Ib Hlis 2021) Kwv yees li 2.5 trillion yen yuav teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv siab rau xyoo thib ob sib law liag.
Hais txog kev cia siab yav tom ntej, SEAJ tau hais tias nws tau kwv yees tias qib kev nqis peev yuav raug tswj nrog cov laj thawj thiab cov chaw tsim khoom lag luam ua lub hauv paus. Yog li ntawd, nws tau kwv yees tias kev muag cov khoom siv Nyij Pooj tsim hauv xyoo 2022 yuav nce li 5.1% mus rau 370 billion yen (yav dhau los). Kwv yees kwv yees li 2,630 billion yen), nws yuav dhau 3 trillion yen cim thawj zaug, thiab nws yuav nce 4.9% txhua xyoo rau 3.22 trillion yen hauv xyoo 2023. Kev sib xyaw txhua xyoo kev loj hlob (CAGR) rau lub sijhawm txij xyoo 2021 txog 2023 yog kwv yees li 10.5%.
SEAJ Tus Thawj Kav Tebchaws Kazuo Ushida tau taw qhia,&"Muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov chips, thiab cov chaw tsim khoom txuas ntxiv qhia lub xeev ntawm lub peev xwm tag nrho. Lub teb chaws tab tom siv cov kev ntsuas txhim kho cov saw khoom."
Kev thov nco tau nthuav dav xyoo no, kev muag khoom semiconductor thoob ntiaj teb yuav tsoo cov ntaub ntawv siab
Lub koom haum Nyij Pooj Hluav Taws Xob thiab Xov Xwm Technology Kev Lag Luam Koom Tes (JEITA) tau tshaj tawm xov xwm thaum Lub Rau Hli 8 hais tias raws li daim ntawv tshaj tawm zaum kawg uas tau tshaj tawm los ntawm World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association (WSTS), kev thov kom nco tau muaj kev vam meej heev, uas yuav tsav thoob ntiaj teb. semiconductor muag xyoo no (2021). Kev loj hlob txhua xyoo tau kwv yees tias yuav nce 19.7% rau 527.223 billion US las, zoo dua li yav dhau los (Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2020) kwv yees li ntawm 469.403 billion USD (nce 8.4%). Kev nce txhua xyoo yuav mus txog ob tus lej thawj zaug txij li xyoo 2018 (10% lossis ntau dua), thiab kev muag khoom txhua xyoo yuav nyob deb tshaj 2018' s 468.7 nphom Asmeskas daus las, cov ntaub ntawv siab.
WSTS tau taw qhia tias vim yog qhov xav tau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob muaj zog tam sim no, nws zoo li nyuaj rau nrhiav cov xwm txheej uas yuav qhia pom kev poob qis. Yog li ntawd, kwv yees tias kev muag khoom semiconductor thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce 8.8% txhua xyoo rau 573.440 nphom Asmeskas las hauv 2022, uas yuav txuas ntxiv teeb tsa keeb kwm.