2021 tab tom yuav dhau mus. Yog tias koj xav xaiv lo lus tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam semiconductor xyoo no, nws yuav tsum yog qhov tsis muaj cores. Kev thov nce ntxiv tau tso cai rau kev siv peev txheej ntawm qhov loj 8-nti thiab 12-nti wafer foundries mus txog 100%. Txhawm rau txhawm rau txo qis qis hauv 2021, ntau fabs tau tshaj tawm cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav. Nws cia siab tias yuav muaj 12 qhov chaw tsim khoom tshiab thoob ntiaj teb hauv xyoo 2022. Ntawm qhov kev txhawj xeeb tshaj plaws, TSMC yuav ntxiv peb fab hauv Taiwan, Nyiv, thiab Tebchaws Meskas; Samsung yuav ntxiv ob lub fab hauv Kaus Lim Qab Teb thiab Tebchaws Meskas; SMIC yuav ntxiv peb fab tshiab hauv tebchaws loj.
Raws li keeb kwm yav dhau los no, thaum tsis muaj qhov tseem ceeb tuaj yeem daws tau los ua qhov teeb meem uas txhua tus neeg txhawj xeeb txog.
Thaum twg qhov tsis muaj cores yuav raug daws, thiab txhua tog hais li cas?
Qhov kev twv ua ntej ntawm cov khoom lag luam tawm los ntawm tus tsim chip txuas ntxiv mus txog rau ib nrab xyoo 2022. Nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli xyoo no, AMD CEO Su Zifeng tau hais tias cov chips thoob ntiaj teb yuav maj mam yooj yim nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo 2022, tab sis thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tseem yuav nruj. Thiab Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon tau hais nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis tias cov khoom xa khoom tuaj yeem maj mam tshem tawm qhov kev kub ntxhov ntawm cov tub ntxhais tsis txaus thaum ntxov 2022. Digitimes kuj tau kwv yees tias Apple cov kev txwv tsis pub xa khoom vim tsis muaj cov cores yuav tau yooj yim thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2022.
Cov kev kwv yees tau muab los ntawm cov tuam txhab chip yog cov kev saib xyuas zoo. GF Semiconductor tau hais tias GF lub peev xwm ntau lawm ua ntej 2023 tau raug booked; Intel kuj ntseeg tias qhov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv nti yuav tsis txhim kho kom txog thaum 2023; TSMC kuj tau hais tias nws lub peev xwm tsim tau nruj. Qhov kev ncua yuav kav mus txog rau xyoo tom ntej. Kev saib xyuas kev kwv yees ntawm chip manufacturers feem ntau yog vim tsis muaj kev xav tau ntawm kev xav tau. Raws li Zhang Zhongmou tau hais, lub hauv paus ua rau ntawm qhov tam sim no puag ncig ntawm cov tub ntxhais tsis txaus yog qhov kev thov sab qis qis qhov kev thov rau cov chips, tsis yog lub peev xwm ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom.
Kev siv zog ntawm kev lag luam automotive tag nrho los ntawm cov dej ntws mus rau hauv qab dej tau tso cai rau kev lag luam tsheb, uas muaj qhov tsis txaus loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov cores, kom pom qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev tso tawm nws cov peev txheej ntau lawm. Ntau lub tsev tsim hluav taws xob hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, xws li Ford, GM, Geely, thiab lwm yam, tshaj tawm lawv txoj kev nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam semiconductor thiab kev tsim cov chips tus kheej. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev sib kis hauv Malaysia, qhov chaw tsim khoom tseem ceeb ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab tsheb loj semiconductor, tau yooj yim, thiab cov peev txheej tsim khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab tsheb semiconductor xws li Infineon thiab STMicroelectronics tau yooj yim. Hauv qhov no, Cui Dongshu, Tus Tuav Secretary-General ntawm Lub Tebchaws Cov Neeg Caij Tsheb Cov Ntaub Ntawv Kev Lag Luam, tau hais tias vim yog cov khoom tsis zoo ntawm cov chips, nws cia siab tias cov khoom siv chips tseem yuav nyob rau hauv qee qhov kev ntxhov siab los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2021. Los ntawm qhov ntev. -lub sij hawm foundations, vim tsis muaj peev xwm ntawm cov khoom muag nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub, nws yuav nyuaj rau impulse thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo. Qee qhov kev thov xav kom hloov mus rau 2022.
Semiconductor tsis txaus yog qhov tsis muaj peev xwm tsim khoom, lossis puas muaj ib tus neeg nyob hauv nruab nrab ntawm kev khaws cia?
Raws li TrendForce' cov ntaub ntawv kev sab laj, CAGR ntawm 12-nti wafer muaj peev xwm los ntawm 2019 txog 2023 yog 12% hauv 5 xyoo. Hauv qhov sib piv, 5-xyoo CAGR rau 8-nti wafer muaj peev xwm tsuas yog 3%. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Semi thiab daim ntawv tshaj tawm txhua xyoo, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb 8-nti wafer feem ntau yog tsim los ntawm 7 hom khoom siv-uas, MOS logic li suav txog li 25%, cov khoom siv analog suav txog li 22%, optoelectronic cov cuab yeej siv nyiaj rau. kwv yees li 16%, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob discrete suav txog li 15%. %, cov khoom siv micro-logic suav txog li 9%, cov khoom siv khaws cia suav txog li 8%, thiab cov sensors suav txog li 5%. Yav dhau los, 8-nti wafer foundry tau suav tias yog ib qho kev tsim khoom tsis txaus hauv kev lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, kev thim rov qab hauv kev lag luam davhlau ya nyob twg xws li xov tooj ntawm tes thiab lub zog tshiab tsheb tau ua rau cov khoom siv nruj ntawm 8-nti wafers.
Muaj kev pom tias nws yog cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov neeg nruab nrab uas ua rau cov tub ntxhais tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, tab sis qhov tseeb, qhov kev pom no dhau lawm. Hauv qhov no, ib tus neeg sawv cev ntawm kev lag luam semiconductor tau piav qhia tias" Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas tawm hauv khw, cov khoom tsis txaus rau xyoo no tsis yog tsuas yog tsom rau qee yam, tab sis txhua yam ntawm semiconductors yog tawm ntawm Tshuag. . Yog tias ib hom khoom tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam, nws tseem tuaj yeem nkag siab tias lub sijhawm ntawm semiconductors; tab sis nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm tag nrho cov kab ntawm cov khoom tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam, lub hauv paus ua rau nyuaj los piav qhia txog kev khaws cia."
Txawm li cas los xij, tus neeg sawv cev no kuj tau hais tias tus cwj pwm hoarding tsis yog tsis muaj nyob. Nws tuaj yeem pom los ntawm kev tshaj tawm ua tiav ntawm ib tus lej ntawm yav dhau los nyuaj-rau-nrhiav MCUs ntawm kev ua lag luam uas cov tub lag luam semiconductor muaj qhov ua tau zoo ntawm kev kwv yees. Txawm li cas los xij, tsoomfwv tau nce kev tswj hwm tus cwj pwm no. Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis xyoo no, Lub Xeev Kev Tswj Xyuas Kev Tswj Xyuas Kev Lag Luam tau raug nplua rau peb tus neeg muag khoom siv hluav taws xob rau kev tsav tsheb nce tus nqi ntawm nws pib chips, thiab tau hais tias nws yuav ua tib zoo saib xyuas tus nqi txiav txim hauv daim teb nti, thiab ua rau muaj kev sib tsoo thiab nce ntxiv. . Kev ua txhaum cai xws li tus nqi. Tab sis kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam tawm yog tias cov khoom lag luam tawm tso cai rau cov neeg nruab nrab pom kev ntxias ntawm cov khoom lag luam, tsis yog cov khoom lag luam uas ua rau cov khoom lag luam tawm.
Panic stockpiling yog ib qho ntawm cov laj thawj tseem ceeb uas ua rau qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv. Hauv kev ua lag luam ICT, cov khoom lag luam qib ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sib txuas yog siab dua li ua ntej. Hauv cov qauv kev ua haujlwm dhau los, feem ntau ntawm cov khoom muag tau los ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm thiab cov neeg sawv cev, tab sis nws tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev tsis txaus nyob rau xyoo 2021. Cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv lub davhlau ya nyob twg tau txhawj xeeb txog kev tswj tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv, yog li lawv sai sai rub cov khoom mus rau hauv lawv lub warehouses. Raws li kev lag luam kwv yees, cov khoom muag khoom hnub ntawm cov khoom sib dhos yog kwv yees li 2 lub hlis ntev dua li qub. Cov hoarders nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam tsis yog tsuas yog cov tub luam ntawm semiconductors, tab sis kuj yog cov neeg xav tau ntawm semiconductors. Qhov no tseem tuaj yeem lees paub los ntawm qhov kev poob qis hauv DRAM cov nqi lag luam. IC Insights cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias qhov nruab nrab muag tus nqi ntawm DRAM nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli tau poob los ntawm 3%, thiab qhov no yog qhov tseeb vim hais tias PC thiab cov neeg siv khoom lag luam khaws cia ntau ntawm DRAM hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab ntau lawm hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. xyoo tau nkag mus rau hauv cov khoom muag khoom noj theem. Raws li qhov xwm txheej no, IC Insights kwv yees tias Q4 DRAM tus nqi yuav poob los ntawm 0 txog 5%.
Qhov tsis muaj cov teeb meem tseem ceeb txo qis yog pib tshwm sim
Kev lag luam tsheb, uas muaj qhov tsis txaus siab tshaj plaws, zoo li tau dhau lub sijhawm nyuaj tshaj plaws. Qhov no tau tshwm sim hauv ntau yam ntawm kev lag luam automotive. Volkswagen's CFO Arno Antilitz tau hais tias nws tau pom cov khoom siv chips ruaj khov, thiab Toyota, Nissan, thiab Honda kuj tau hais tias lawv yuav nce ntau lawm yav tom ntej. Ib tus neeg hais xov xwm GM tau hais tias thawj lub lim tiam ntawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis, GM' North American lub rooj sib txoos cog tsis tau kaw thawj zaug vim tsis muaj cov cores.
Ntxiv rau cov tuam txhab tsheb uas tuaj yeem lees paub qhov txo qis ntawm qhov tsis muaj cov tub ntxhais, cov khoom siv ntawm cov chips kuj tau yooj yim hauv 4S khw. Cui Dongshu tau hais tias cov khoom siv nruj ntawm cov chips loj tau txhim kho, thiab kev rov qab los ntawm cov neeg caij tsheb ntau lawm feem ntau txhim kho. Nyob rau hauv kev sib koom tes ntawm cov tuam tsev muaj feem cuam tshuam, tag nrho cov kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov neeg caij tsheb lag luam tau pib ua kom ruaj khov. Tus neeg sau xov xwm tau kawm tias cov khoom siv ntawm cov qauv hauv tsev raws li Jaguar Land Rover hom tau nce li ntawm 20% piv nrog ob peb lub hlis dhau los; Dongfeng Honda' cov khoom siv hauv lub quarter thib plaub tau nce 50% piv nrog rau peb lub hlis twg. Ntau lub khw muag khoom 4S tau hais tias "nws siv sijhawm ntau dua 2 lub hlis los khaws lub tsheb ua ntej, tab sis tam sim no lub voj voog tos tau raug txo mus rau ib mus rau ib hlis thiab ib nrab." Tus neeg sau xov xwm tau kawm tias qee qhov nrov BBA qauv twb muaj nyob rau hauv Beijing 4S khw. , Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, lub zog nyiam ntawm cov qauv nrov hauv tsev kuj tau rov pib dua.
Hais txog cov saw hlau, ICViews tau kawm los ntawm qib tiam neeg uas tsis txaus ntawm MCUs tau yooj yim. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, tus neeg sau xov xwm pom nyob rau hauv ntau lub semiconductor muab kev sib pauv pab pawg uas cov ntaub ntawv ntawm ntau MCUs uas yav dhau los tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam yog maj mam nce.
Ntawm ntau pawg semiconductor muab kev sib pauv, STMicroelectronics tsis muaj tsawg lawm.
Qee cov tuam txhab OEM tsis xav nrhiav kev hloov kho MCU hauv tsev. Qee qhov OEDMs tau hais tias: "Thaum muaj qhov tseem ceeb tsis txaus ua ntej, cov xov xwm los ntawm thawj lub Hoobkas yog tias cov khoom siv lossis kev faib khoom yuav nyob rau hauv lub xeev ntawm kev txiav tawm ua ntej, yog li lawv xav nrhiav lwm txoj hauv kev. Cov khoom; thiab tam sim no qhov kev thov tsawg dua rau cov khoom lag luam tsim tawm hauv tsev yog vim qhov maj mam rov pib dua ntawm cov khoom tom qab tau txais daim ntawv ceeb toom thawj zaug los ntawm thawj cov chaw tsim khoom."
Muaj kev daws teeb meem ntau dua li qhov nyuaj
Rov qab mus rau kab lus qhib, cov fab loj loj tau nthuav dav cov nroj tsuag tshiab, thiab tsoomfwv thoob ntiaj teb kuj tseem txhawb nqa kev tsim cov tuam txhab semiconductor. Raws li qhov sib txawv no, qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov tsis muaj cores tau pom tias muaj qhov cuam tshuam.
Kev lag luam tshiab xws li lub zog tshiab tsheb, Metaverse, 5G thiab txawm tias 6G khaws cov khoom lag luam semiconductor hauv kev thov siab; daim ntawv tshiab kev lag luam uas sawv cev los ntawm lub hom phiaj dual-carbon coj cov kev cai tshiab rau kev lag luam semiconductor; Beijing Tshuag Txauv tuaj yeem nqa cov tuam txhab me me thiab nruab nrab semiconductor Cov peev nyiaj yuav los txog ... 2021 yog los txog rau qhov kawg. Lub caij ntuj no dhau los lawm, lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav puas tuaj yeem nyob deb?