Stephen Howe yog ib tug tub luam ntawm kim" antiques". Txawm hais tias tus neeg yuav khoom' qhov kev thov tau mus txog qib siab tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm, nws tsis zoo siab: cov khoom tsis txaus, thiab nws tsis tuaj yeem nrhiav cov khoom muag.
Stephen Howe yuav thiab muag tsis yog cov watches qub lossis cov tsheb classic, tab sis cov khoom siv chips uas tsis tshua muaj hnub no. Cov tshuab uas nws muag feem ntau tsawg kawg yog kaum xyoo-vim tias cov neeg tsim khoom siv nyiaj ntau tshaj plaws xws li Samsung, Intel thiab TSMC tuaj yeem tuav cov khoom siv nti tshiab hauv lawv txhais tes li ntawm kaum xyoo. Cov tshuab uas nws muag yog cov laus dua.
Lub nti tsis txaus hauv 2020 thiab 2021 tau cuam tshuam lub ntiaj teb' lub peev xwm los tsim cov khoom xws li tsheb mus rau cov xov tooj ntse. Raws li ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, cov chaw tsim khoom lag luam semiconductor thiab Stephen Howe nws tus kheej, qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv chip thib ob yog ib qho ntawm cov laj thawj vim li cas lub nti tsis txaus.
Tsis muaj leej twg paub tseeb tias muaj pes tsawg daim chips hauv ntiaj teb tau tsim nrog cov khoom siv thib ob, tab sis raws li Stephen Howe' qhov kev kwv yees, qhov sib piv yuav siab li 1/3.
Wayne Ram, tus thawj coj tshawb fawb ntawm CCS Insights, lub tuam txhab kev pab tswv yim thev naus laus zis, tau hais tias ntau dua li ib nrab ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam semiconductor cov nyiaj tau los los ntawm cov chips qub. Intel's tshiab laptop processor chips raug nqi ntau pua las. Nyob rau hauv sib piv, ntau cov laus tiam chips tsuas yog ob peb duas las, thiab ib co kuj raug nqi ob peb xees.
Cov chips uas siv cov thev naus laus zis ntau dua yuav raug cog rau hauv cov koob yees duab thiab lwm yam sensors ntsia rau hauv tib neeg' lub xov tooj ntawm tes thiab tsheb, hluav taws xob hluav taws xob, logic controllers ntawm lub Hoobkas khoom, thiab chips uas siv kev sib txuas lus wireless. Qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov chips no yog lub hauv paus ua rau muaj teeb meem xws li kev tsim tsheb kaw thiab Apple tsis muaj peev xwm ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm iPhone tshiab.
Tsis tas li ntawd, tus kab mob tshiab tshiab tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm cov chips tam sim no, uas tsis yog tsuas yog ua rau kev kaw ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom uas tseem ceeb rau kev tsim thiab ntim ntawm cov chips no, tab sis kuj ua rau muaj kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv hauv chaw ua haujlwm hauv tsev thiab lwm yam khoom lag luam. siv cov chips. Tab sis qhov teeb meem tsis nres ntawd.
Ntau xyoo dhau los, kev hloov mus sij hawm ntev-uas yog, qhov kev thov rau cov chips rau ntau yam khoom siv hluav taws xob tau nthuav dav thiab tsis tuaj yeem ua tau raws li-tau khaws cov khoom siv cov saw hlau ntawm lub hauv paus ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob.
Hassan Cooley, CEO ntawm ON Semiconductor, ib tug semiconductor chaw tsim tshuaj paus raws li nyob rau hauv Phoenix, Arizona, hais tias ib feem ntawm vim li cas rau qhov kev thov mus ntxiv yog kev loj hlob ntawm lub" Internet ntawm yam" nyob rau hauv tsib xyoos dhau los los yog li ntawd. Tsis tsuas yog muaj ntau yam uas tib neeg yuav tam sim no nruab nrog chips, tus naj npawb ntawm cov chips cog rau hauv qee yam tau dhau mus.
Tau ntsib nrog cov kev xav tau no, cov tuam txhab chip tau cog lus tias yuav nce cov chips ntau dua li qhov ua ntej, tab sis nws yog qhov nyuaj heev los yog tsis yooj yim sua kom ceev cov chips uas muaj ntau lub tuam txhab tam sim no xav tau.
Ib qho laj thawj yog tias txawm tias nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej zoo tshaj plaws, nws yuav siv sij hawm ntau lub hlis los nthuav dav lub peev xwm ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom chip, ib feem vim tias qhov nyuaj ntawm chip manufacturing yuav luag tsis txaus ntseeg - txawm tias siv cov cuab yeej qub.
Qhov kev nyuaj ntawm theem no txhais tau hais tias txawm tias cov chaw tsim khoom lag luam chips pib lossis tsawg dua tuaj yeem tau txais cov cuab yeej tsim khoom, nws yuav tsis tuaj yeem ua cov chips uas zoo txaus kom tau txais txiaj ntsig. Txawm tias qhov zoo tshaj plaws chip manufacturers yuav tsum muab pov tseg 10% ntawm cov chips lawv ua nyob rau hauv nruab nrab, thiab ua kom tiav xws li ib tug tsawg seem yuav tsum muaj kev txawj ntse kev txawj ntse.
Stephen Howe tau hais tias vim qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov nti no tau nce zuj zus, kev sib ntaus sib tua rau cov khoom siv thib ob tau txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv. Txawm tias chip manufacturers lawv tus kheej raug cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov chip tsis txaus.