ASML, lub ntiaj teb' ua tus tsim khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor lithography, tsis ntev los no tau tsa nws cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho xyoo. Peter Wennink, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm ASML, tau hais tias nws cia siab tias cov nyiaj tau los nce ntawm 35 feem pua xyoo no, nce 5 feem pua cov ntsiab lus los ntawm nws qhov kev kwv yees yav dhau los ntawm 30 feem pua, vim tias cov laj thawj thiab cov cim xeeb ua cov tshuab ua kom muaj peev xwm txhawb nqa cov txheej txheem digital thiab xav tau rau lub tuam txhab&] #39; cov khoom muaj zog.
Kev loj hlob hauv cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob feem ntau yog ua raws kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb' qhov kev xav tau txaus rau lub peev xwm nti. Lub Ntiaj Teb Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association (WSTS) tau tshaj tawm qhov kev kwv yees qhia pom tias vim muaj qhov xav tau ntau rau kev nco, kev muag khoom semiconductor thoob ntiaj teb tau nce siab xyoo no, kwv yees tias yuav nce 19.7% xyoo rau xyoo rau 527.223 billion Asmeskas las, siab dua Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2020 kev kwv yees ntawm 469.404 txhiab nyiaj daus las Asmeskas (nce 8.4% xyoo). Qhov ntawd yuav yog thawj ob-tus lej nce txhua xyoo txij li xyoo 2018, thiab yuav teev tseg cov ntaub ntawv khaws tseg rau kev muag khoom txhua xyoo zoo dua li xyoo 2018' s $ 468.7 nphom.
WSTS tau hais tias nws cia siab tias kev muag khoom semiconductor thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce 8.8 feem pua txhua xyoo mus rau $ 573.44 nphom hauv xyoo 2022, txuas ntxiv teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv tshiab, vim tias tam sim no muaj zog xav tau rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo li nyuaj rau pom.
Pom tseeb, qhov no yog qhov zoo heev cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor.
Ua ntej, fabs nyob rau hauv tag nrho viav vias
Muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm lub peev xwm nti thiab nce ntxiv hauv cov lej, ob qho tib si IDM thiab Foundry, nrog kev thov muaj zog rau cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob.
Cov tuam txhab tsim khoom siv hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb yuav pib tsim 19 qhov khoom tshiab los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm lub xyoo no thiab lwm 10 hauv 2022, raws li SEMI. Kev siv nyiaj rau cov khoom siv rau 29 fabs xav tias yuav ntau dua $ 140bn nyob rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no.
Hais txog kev faib khoom hauv cheeb tsam, Tuam Tshoj thiab Taiwan txhua tus muaj yim fabs, ua raws Amelikas nrog rau rau, Tebchaws Europe thiab Middle East nrog peb, thiab Nyiv thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb nrog ob leeg. Cov nroj tsuag tshiab yuav suav nrog 22 12-nti wafers, suav nrog 15 hauv 2021 thiab xya pib hauv 2022.
Lwm xya fabs yog 4-inch, 6-inch thiab 8-inch fabs.
Ntawm 29 fabs, 15 yog cov chaw cog lus muaj peev xwm tsim 30,000 txog 220,000 wafers ib hlis (kwv yees li 8 ntiv), thiab plaub lub cim xeeb muaj peev xwm tsim tau 100,000 txog 400,000 wafers ib hlis (8 ntiv tes).
Thaum tus naj npawb ntawm fabs xav tias yuav qhib rau xyoo tom ntej yog 10, kev tshaj tawm tom ntej ntawm cov haujlwm tshiab los ntawm cov kws tsim khoom tsis tuaj yeem txiav txim siab tawm, ua rau 29 tus lej suav nrog, SEMI tau hais.
Thib ob, txhawm rau tsav kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor
Kev loj hlob hauv kev tsim cov fabs tau ncaj qha tsav kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor. Raws li tau hais ua ntej, tsawg kawg 29 qhov kev xav tau tshiab yuav raug tsim nyob rau ob xyoos tom ntej no, nrog rau kev siv cuab yeej siv yuav tsum siab dua $ 140 nphom. Cov nroj tsuag tshiab feem ntau siv sijhawm tsawg kawg ob xyoos los mus rau theem teeb tsa, yog li feem ntau cov tshuab tsim khoom uas pib tsim cov nroj tsuag tshiab xyoo no yeej' tsis pib ua haujlwm kom txog thaum ntxov li 2023, txawm hais tias qee qhov tuaj yeem pib ua haujlwm thaum ntxov raws li thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022.
Kev nqis peev cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob tau kwv yees tias yuav nyob siab dua $ 3 nphom txog xyoo 2022, nrog cov chaw tsim khoom siv nyiaj txiag rau ntau dua ib nrab ntawm kev siv tag nrho, ua raws li cov khoom siv sib cais/lub zog (21%), analog ics (15%), thiab MEMS thiab cov ntsuas (7%) ).
Raws li kev txheeb cais ua ntej tshaj tawm los ntawm The Japan Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Association (SEAJ), kev muag khoom ntawm Semiconductor cov cuab yeej tsim khoom hauv Nyij Pooj (3-lub hlis txav nruab nrab) hauv Lub Rau Hli 2021 tau nce ze li 40% (38.3%) los ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los , cim rau lub hlis sib law thib rau ntawm txoj kev loj hlob thiab plaub lub hlis sib law liag ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm ob tus lej. Kev muag khoom ib hlis yog qhov thib peb siab tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2005, thaum muaj cov ntaub ntawv los sib piv (tsuas yog 305.4 lab yen hauv lub Tsib Hlis 2021 thiab 282 lab yen hauv lub Plaub Hlis 2021). Txij lub Ib Hlis txog Lub Rau Hli 2021, kev muag khoom ntawm cov khoom siv Japanese semiconductor tau nce 27.5 feem pua piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los.
Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob Nyij Pooj tau cia siab tias yuav loj hlob 22.5% yoy hauv xyoo 2021 (Plaub Hlis 2021 txog Lub Peb Hlis 2022) vim kev nqis peev ntau hauv kev xav/pom thiab xav tau qib siab ntawm kev nqis peev tag nrho, SEAJ tau hais hauv nws qhov kev kwv yees tso tawm thaum Lub Xya Hli 1. txog 2.920 trillion yen, zoo dua li 2.5 trillion yen kwv yees thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2021 thiab teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv tshiab rau xyoo thib ob ua ke.
Ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob Nyij Pooj, 59 feem pua hais tias lawv tau ntsib qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom hauv xyoo dhau los vim yog kev lag luam qis los ntawm cov khoom siv uas twb muaj lawm. Ib qho ntxiv, ntau dua 70 feem pua ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom tau hais tias lawv tau ntsib teeb meem xws li kev yuav khoom lub sijhawm xa khoom, tus nqi thiab qhov zoo. Cov tuam txhab ntsib qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom tab tom nrhiav cov khoom lag luam tshiab, suav nrog cov uas tsis tau tsim khoom rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob.
Hauv kev lag luam khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob, Taiwan xav tau yog txoj kev vam meej tshaj plaws. Raws li kwv yees li 80% ntawm TSMC' cov peev txheej peev xyoo no yuav siv rau cov txheej txheem qib siab, tsim nyog EUV cov cuab yeej muab cov saw hauv qab 7nm yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig, suav nrog EUV lub tshuab luam ntawv tshuab luam ntawv ASML, EUV lub npog ntsej muag lub thawv xa khoom Jiadeng, EUV cov cuab yeej module OEM Fanxuan thiab Tongjun, thiab cov khoom siv saw sawing jingding, Ruiyun, Muaj cov tshuab nqus tsev daws teeb meem chaw tsim khoom Riyang tseem tuaj yeem txaus siab rau kev lag luam. Ib qho ntxiv, kwv yees li 10 feem pua ntawm TSMC' s 2021 capex yuav siv rau kev tswj hwm qib siab thiab kho qhov muag qhov muag, uas yog kwv yees li $ 3 nphom. Nws tau nkag siab tias TSMC zhunan cov nroj tsuag tshiab xav tias yuav tsim khoom ntau los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm lub xyoo no mus rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo tom ntej, cov tshuab tsis siv neeg thiab cov khoom siv muag khoom Wanrun, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ntub cov txheej txheem khoom lag luam Hongsu, Xin Yun yuav muab faib ua kev txiav txim loj.
Thaum Lub Peb Hlis xyoo no, xov xwm tshaj tawm tias Samsung tau nrawm mus cuag UMC los tham txog kev tsim khoom ntawm Nanke Plant. Tom qab ob lub hlis ntawm kev tham, ob tog thaum kawg tau txiav txim siab zaum kawg, nrog Samsung ua tus thawj coj, kwv yees li ib nrab ntawm cov peev txheej tsim khoom ntawm Nanke Plant. Ib qho ntxiv, UMC tseem sib tham daim ntawv cog lus nrog lwm tus neeg siv khoom, suav nrog Mediatek, Lianyong thiab Ruiyu, kom cog lus tias muaj peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm 27,500 daim hauv ib hlis ntawm Nanke cog rau 6 xyoo tom ntej hauv daim ntawv ua ntej tso nyiaj. Umc yuav siv cov nyiaj no los yuav khoom siv xav tau rau kev nthuav dav ntawm 28nm txheej txheem ntawm Nanke P6 cog.
Qhov thib ob, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor ua lag luam muaj peev xwm
Suav teb av loj muaj peev xwm siv tau zoo rau cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob ib leeg, yog li cov tuam txhab tsim khoom siv hluav taws xob loj tseem tab tom saib lub ncuav. Txawm li cas los xij, ntawm kev muab khoom, Tuam Tshoj' cov chaw tsim khoom siv hauv nroog muaj qhov cuam tshuam me me hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, thiab nws nyuaj rau tsim kev nyuaj siab rau cov tuam txhab loj thoob ntiaj teb.
Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev ua kom tsis zoo ntawm kev lag luam, kev tawv ncauj loj hlob ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom siv hauv zej zog thiab kev txhawb nqa tseem ceeb ntawm tsoomfwv, cov chaw tsim khoom siv hauv nroog muaj chav ntau dua rau kev sim thiab ua yuam kev thiab kev loj hlob, thiab qhov kev txiav txim hauv ob xyoos dhau los tau nce ntau. Txheeb cais qhia tias ntau lub tuam txhab khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob hauv ib cheeb tsam yeej qhov loj, hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo 2020, cov cuab yeej siv khoom siv hauv tsev yeej 82 pawg, nce ntxiv 100% xyoo rau xyoo, txiav txim lub voj voog 2 ~ 3 lub hlis, kev lees paub cov nyiaj tau los xyoo 2021, ib tug xov tooj ntawm cov cuab yeej siv khoom lag luam sib qhia tau nce ntau dua 10%.
Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev tau tawg los ntawm qhov cuam tshuam ntawm 700 lab ~ 1 nphom (txheeb cais ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 700 lab ~ 1 nphom yog qhov cuam tshuam ntau yam). Raws li qhov kev hloov pauv no, tus nqi hauv ib cheeb tsam ntawm cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob hauv Suav tau cia siab tias yuav txhim kho ntxiv hauv xyoo 2021, thiab Tuam Tshoj xav tias yuav nyob hauv ib qho chaw hauv kev sib tw muaj txiaj ntsig thoob ntiaj teb cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor.
Hauv Suav lag luam, dielectric etching tshuab yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hauv Suav teb. Tam sim no, ntawm cov cuab yeej siv tseem ceeb hauv Suav teb, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv degumming, cov cuab yeej siv tshuaj, cov cuab yeej kho cua sov thiab cov khoom siv tu tsev tau mus txog ntau dua 20%. Ntawm lawv, cov lag luam loj tshaj plaws yog cov cuab yeej kos, sawv cev rau cov tuam txhab tsim khoom rau Micro, NaAC, thiab Yitang semiconductor.
Raws li Yin Zhiyao, tus tsim ntawm Tuam Tshoj Micro Semiconductor, hauv thaj tsam ntawm cov cuab yeej kos, yav tom ntej kev tsim khoom hauv tebchaws yuav tsum nce mus txog 50%. Qhov no yog vim tias tus nqi ntawm kev siv lub tshuab nqus tsev yog qhov siab tshaj ntawm cov cuab yeej siv hauv tsev (kev ua wafer), thiab nws qhov kev faib ua feem yog nce xyoo ib xyoos. Raws li SEMI, tus nqi ntawm domestication ntawm etching cov cuab yeej hauv Suav teb xav tias yuav ncav cuag 20% los ntawm 2020.
Smic semiconductor muaj qhov pom tseeb zoo hauv thaj tsam CCP etching. Hais txog kev tsim cov txheej txheem sib txuas lus tsim nyog, SMIC yog tib lub tuam txhab tsim khoom siv hauv tsev kom nkag mus rau TSMC cov txheej txheem txheej txheem tsim khoom ntau lawm. Xyoo 2017, SMIC cov cuab yeej siv tshuab nkag mus rau TSMC 7nm kab ntau lawm, thiab 5nm txheej txheem tau koom tes. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, lub tuam txhab' cov cuab yeej kos rau hauv Yangtze Storage, Huahong Hongli thiab lwm lub tuam txhab ua lag luam wafer. Hauv 3D NAND kev tsim khoom, LUB TEB CHAWS' CCP cov cuab yeej siv thev naus laus zis tuaj yeem siv rau kev tsim khoom loj ntawm 64 txheej txheej. Nws tau tshaj tawm tias lub tuam txhab tab tom tsim 96-txheej thiab ntau dua cov cuab yeej kos thiab txheej txheem raws li qhov xav tau ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom.
Hais txog kev tso zaj duab xis lub cev (PVD), NaURA muaj ntau yam khoom siv tso zaj duab xis ntau tshaj plaws. Nws 28nm tawv daim npog PVD tau ua tiav ntau lawm, thaum tooj liab sib txuas PVD, 14nm tawv daim npog PVD, Al PVD, LPCVD thiab ALD (atomic deposition) cov cuab yeej tau nkag mus rau kab kab pov thawj theem. Thaum lub Plaub Hlis 2020, NaURA tshaj tawm tias nws Txoj Kev Xav ISSN302D 12-nti silicon nitride tso khoom siv nkag mus rau hauv tsev IC tsim khoom lag luam. Kev xa cov cuab yeej txhais tau hais tias cov khoom siv ntsug LPCVD hauv lub tebchaws nyob rau hauv kev tsim khoom tshiab IC daim ntawv thov kom ua tiav qhov kev vam meej tseem ceeb.
Hais txog kev tu cov cuab yeej, ntawm ib leeg wafer ntub cov cuab yeej tsim khoom hauv Suav teb, Qhov chaw hloov pauv hloov chaw (SAPS) Megabyte cov cuab yeej ua kom huv thiab cov cavitation oscillation tswj (TEBO) Megabyte acoustic tu cov cuab yeej tshwj xeeb tsim los ntawm Semmei Semiconductor tau ua tiav kev sib koom ua ke tsim cov kab hauv Kaus Lim Kauslim thiab Tuam Tshoj. Naura cov cuab yeej ntxuav kuj tseem ua tiav SMIC cov kab ntau lawm. Raws li kev txheeb cais ntawm Tuam Tshoj International Tendering Website, ntawm ntau dua 200 teeb tsa cov khoom siv tu los ntawm Yangtze Storage, Wuxi Huahong thiab Shanghai Huali Phase II txoj haujlwm, cov neeg xa khoom tau suav los ntawm tus lej ntawm kev sib tw yog Deanshi, Semmei, Lam, TEL thiab NaURA chuang, suav txog 48%, 20.5%, 20%, 6%thiab 1%feem.
Hais txog kev siv lub tshuab polishing (CMP), cov kev tshawb fawb tseem ceeb thiab kev txhim kho hauv Suav teb suav nrog tianjin Huahai Qingke thiab 45 Lub Tsev Haujlwm ntawm Tuam Tshoj Hluav Taws Xob Hluav Taws Xob Technology Co., LTD. Huahai Qingke' s polishing tshuab tau sim tawm ntawm SMIC thoob ntiaj teb cov kab ntau lawm.
Thib peb, Kev nqis peev hauv Suav teb muaj txiaj ntsig ntau dua
Hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb tsis ntev los no, tus kws tshuaj xyuas CFRA Angelo Zino taw qhia tias cov cuab yeej tsim khoom siv hluav taws xob yog kim thiab nyuaj rau kev txhim kho, yog li cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor txawv teb chaws tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm Tuam Tshoj' txoj cai. Cov tuam txhab suav nrog Cov Khoom Siv, KLA thiab Europe' ASML tau cia siab tias yuav mob siab rau cov peev txheej ntxiv rau kev lag luam suav teb.
Qhov ntsuas ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau nce ntau dua 30 feem pua hauv ob peb lub hlis dhau los, nrog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshwj xeeb tshaj li kev ua lag luam dav dua' 5 feem pua poob thiab ua tau zoo dua 15 feem pua poob hauv Hong Kong. cov khoom lag luam.
Hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, ntau thiab ntau tus tub lag luam nqis peev hauv Suav teb xav kom tig mus rau cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis siab, sawv cev los ntawm cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv, vim tias muaj kev cia siab nyob hauv cov haujlwm no, ob qho tib si ntawm kev ua lag luam thiab qib txoj cai.